UPDATE: Donald Trump did win the 2024 election.
Donald Trump’s longstanding admiration for Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin has resurfaced as a key point of concern for voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s apparent willingness to appease Putin, combined with his repeated threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, could alienate a significant portion of the electorate: European Americans with family ties in Europe. These voters, who value strong transatlantic relations and the protection offered by NATO, may see Trump’s stance as a direct threat to the security and stability of their extended family in their ancestral homelands.
In recent comments, Trump reportedly told Putin that Russia could “do whatever the hell they want” in Europe. This remark has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles and among voters who view Europe as a close ally. Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about potentially pulling the United States out of NATO, a cornerstone of European security since World War II, has only exacerbated these fears.
Trump’s relationship with Putin has been a focal point of his foreign policy approach since his first presidential campaign in 2016. During his presidency, Trump consistently praised Putin, often defying the advice of his own intelligence agencies and foreign policy advisors. His administration was marked by a series of controversial moves that were seen as advantageous to Russia, including his reluctance to confront Russia over election interference and his support for policies that weakened NATO’s unity.
Trump’s public admiration for Putin has not waned, and his recent statements have reinforced the perception that he remains willing to accommodate the Russian leader’s geopolitical ambitions. This has raised alarms among European American voters, particularly those with familial or cultural ties to countries vulnerable to Russian aggression, such as Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been vocal in challenging Trump’s stance on NATO and his subservience to Putin, particularly when it comes to key European allies like Poland. In a sharp rebuke during the first Presidential Debate, Harris directly confronted Trump, calling on him to explain to Polish Americans in Pennsylvania how he could so casually “give up” for the sake of favor and friendship with a dictator.
“And why don’t you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania; how quickly you would give up, for the sake of favor —and what you think is a friendship with someone who is known to be a dictator. Who would eat you for lunch.” she commanded. In a moment that resonated with voters, Harris stared Trump down, while he avoided looking directly at her, underscoring the gravity of her challenge. Harris’s words may resonate deeply in Pennsylvania, a state with a significant Polish American population, further undermining Trump’s appeal to this critical voting bloc.
NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been a linchpin of global security since its founding in 1949. For European nations, particularly those in Eastern Europe, NATO represents a crucial line of defense against Russian expansionism. Trump’s threats to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance could have catastrophic consequences, leaving Europe exposed to potential aggression from Russia.
European American voters, many of whom have strong connections to countries that are NATO members or depend on its protection, may view Trump’s disregard for the alliance as a betrayal of long-standing U.S. commitments and a direct threat to their families well being. The alliance has not only safeguarded Europe but has also promoted economic stability, democratic values, and peace throughout the continent.
European Americans, a demographic group with deep roots in U.S. history, have a strong interest in maintaining robust ties between the U.S. and Europe. Many have family members who still live in Europe or visit frequently. For these voters, the stability and security of Europe are personal concerns, not just geopolitical issues.
By signaling a willingness to let Putin act unchecked in Europe, Trump risks alienating these voters, who may fear that their relatives’ safety is being compromised. Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO could also be seen as a direct attack on the stability of Europe, further driving a wedge between him and European American voters.
In states with large populations of European Americans, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, Trump’s stance could prove particularly damaging. These are key swing states that were instrumental in his 2016 victory but where the margins of victory were slim. Any erosion of support among European Americans could tip the balance in favor of his opponents.
Trump’s approach to Putin reflects a broader strategy of appeasement, which is unlikely to sit well with European Americans who value a strong and principled U.S. foreign policy. Many of these voters have a deep-seated distrust of Russia, given its history of aggressive actions in Europe, from the annexation of Crimea to its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Appeasement policies have historically been unpopular with American voters, particularly those with ties to regions threatened by authoritarian regimes. European Americans may see Trump’s deference to Putin as a sign of weakness and a failure to stand up for the values and security of the free world.
As Trump continues his 2024 run, his foreign policy positions, particularly regarding Russia and NATO, are likely to be scrutinized closely by voters. While his base has remained loyal, his subservience to Putin could cost him support among European Americans.
The 2024 election will likely hinge on the candidates’ ability to present a vision of America that resonates with a diverse and increasingly concerned electorate. For European Americans, Trump’s approach to Putin and NATO may be a dealbreaker. If Trump continues down this path of appeasement, he may find himself losing the crucial votes of those who still have deep ties to Europe.
Photo by RDNE Stock project
